San Miguel vs Panadería Pulido Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for San Miguel and 1.87 for Panadería Pulido, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives San Miguel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.98 – 1.87

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

San Miguel home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Miguel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 21% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for San Miguel and 1.87 for Panadería Pulido, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 73%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Match result (1X2)

San Miguel win42%

Draw21%

Panadería Pulido win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

1–17.9%
2–17.8%
1–27.4%
2–27.3%
3–15.2%

Recent form

San Miguel

2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Las Palmas III · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Panadería Pulido · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Telde · 3-1 (W)
2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Marino · 2-0 (W)
2026-04-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mensajero · 0-1 (L)

Panadería Pulido

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	UD San Fernando	6	5	0	1	14	15
2	Panadería Pulido	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	Real Unión de Tenerife	6	4	1	1	5	13
4	Mensajero	6	3	2	1	2	11
5	Marino	6	3	1	2	6	10
6	Tenerife C	6	3	1	2	3	10
7	Los Llanos	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	San Miguel	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Las Palmas III	6	2	3	1	3	9
10	San Bartolomé	6	2	3	1	1	9
11	Unión Sur Yaiza	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Estrella	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Lanzarote	6	1	3	2	-3	6
14	Villa Santa Brígida	6	1	3	2	-4	6
15	Anaza	6	1	2	3	-5	5
16	Laguna de Duero	6	0	2	4	-6	2
17	Villaverde Norte	6	0	2	4	-8	2
18	Playas Sotavento	6	0	2	4	-15	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.