Campo De Fútbol San Miguel De Abona · Analysis updated 02:43 UTC
San Miguel vs Villa Santa Brígida Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.01 expected goals for San Miguel and 0.76 for Villa Santa Brígida, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives San Miguel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
San Miguel win
66.5% probability
Expected goals
2.01 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Miguel home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Miguel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 20% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.01 goals for San Miguel and 0.76 for Villa Santa Brígida, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 46%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.6%
- 1–012.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.6%
- 3–08.4%
Recent form
San Miguel
- 2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Las Palmas III · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Panadería Pulido · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Telde · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Marino · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mensajero · 0-1 (L)
Villa Santa Brígida
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD San Fernando | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 2 | Panadería Pulido | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | San Miguel | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Unión de Tenerife | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Tenerife C | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Marino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Las Palmas III | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Unión Sur Yaiza | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Mensajero | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Los Llanos | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | San Bartolomé | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Lanzarote | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Anaza | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | Villa Santa Brígida | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Estrella | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Playas Sotavento | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | Laguna de Duero | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 2 |
| 18 | Villaverde Norte | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is San Miguel win, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.