· Analysis updated 15:28 UTC
San-Pédro vs ASEC Mimosas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for San-Pédro and 0.55 for ASEC Mimosas, a combined total of 1.81. That distribution gives San-Pédro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
San-Pédro win
53.7% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San-Pédro home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San-Pédro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 30% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for San-Pédro and 0.55 for ASEC Mimosas, a combined 1.81 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 27% and both teams to score at 30%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.6%
- 0–016.4%
- 2–012.9%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–19.1%
Recent form
San-Pédro
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nouadhibou · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Bouaké · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs US Tchologo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Zoman · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rivers United · 2-2 (D)
ASEC Mimosas
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yamoussoukro | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | SOA | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Zoman | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | ES Agboville | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | San-Pédro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | SOL | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Stade d'Abidjan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | ISCA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Bouaké | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 10 | Korhogo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 11 | AFAD | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 12 | Stella | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | ASEC Mimosas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | US Tchologo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 | Mouna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Adiake | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is San-Pédro win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.