· Analysis updated 15:28 UTC
San-Pédro vs Mouna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for San-Pédro and 1.65 for Mouna, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Mouna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mouna win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San-Pédro home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Mouna away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mouna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 22% / 25% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for San-Pédro and 1.65 for Mouna, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.0%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
San-Pédro
- 2026-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Sfaxien · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs ISCA · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-17T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Mouna · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs ASEC Mimosas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympique Sport d'Abobo · 2-1 (W)
Mouna
- 2026-05-24T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Korhogo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs San-Pédro · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs ES Agboville · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zoman · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs AFAD · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yamoussoukro | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | SOA | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Zoman | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | San-Pédro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | SOL | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | ES Agboville | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | ISCA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Bouaké | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Stade d'Abidjan | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Korhogo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 11 | AFAD | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 12 | Stella | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | ASEC Mimosas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | US Tchologo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 | Mouna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Adiake | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mouna win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.