San Roque Lepe vs Ceuta II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for San Roque Lepe and 1.06 for Ceuta II, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives San Roque Lepe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

San Roque Lepe win

49.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.06

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

San Roque Lepe home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ceuta II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Roque Lepe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 25% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for San Roque Lepe and 1.06 for Ceuta II, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

San Roque Lepe win49%

Draw25%

Ceuta II win26%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.0%
1–011.3%
2–19.4%
2–08.9%
0–17.6%

Recent form

San Roque Lepe

2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceuta II · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Córdoba II · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Chiclana · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Conil · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Central · 0-0 (D)

Ceuta II

2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chiclana · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Egabrense · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Roque Lepe · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dos Hermanas · 2-4 (L)
2026-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dos Hermanas · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Utrera	6	5	0	1	3	15
2	Dos Hermanas	6	4	1	1	8	13
3	Portuense	6	4	1	1	7	13
4	Betis C	6	4	1	1	6	13
5	Tomares	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	Pozoblanco	6	3	1	2	4	10
7	Egabrense	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	San Roque Lepe	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Xerez Deportivo	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Chiclana	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Recreativo Huelva	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	Ceuta II	6	2	1	3	-4	7
13	Linense	6	2	0	4	-2	6
14	Conil	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Cádiz II	6	1	2	3	-1	5
16	Bollullos	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Sevilla III	6	1	2	3	-3	5
18	Córdoba II	6	0	2	4	-7	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is San Roque Lepe win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.