· Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
San Roque Lepe vs Conil Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for San Roque Lepe and 0.89 for Conil, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives San Roque Lepe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
San Roque Lepe win
53.5% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Roque Lepe home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Conil away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Roque Lepe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 25% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for San Roque Lepe and 0.89 for Conil, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.3%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
San Roque Lepe
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceuta II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Córdoba II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Chiclana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Conil · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Central · 0-0 (D)
Conil
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Córdoba II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo Huelva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Linense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cádiz II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dos Hermanas · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utrera | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 2 | Dos Hermanas | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Portuense | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Betis C | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Tomares | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Pozoblanco | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Egabrense | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | San Roque Lepe | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Xerez Deportivo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Chiclana | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Recreativo Huelva | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Ceuta II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Linense | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Conil | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Cádiz II | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 | Bollullos | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 | Sevilla III | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 18 | Córdoba II | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is San Roque Lepe win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.