Stadio Valentino Mazzola · Analysis updated 02:09 UTC
Sancataldese vs Enna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Sancataldese and 1.75 for Enna, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Enna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Enna win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sancataldese home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Enna away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Enna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 32% / 23% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Sancataldese and 1.75 for Enna, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–17.4%
- 0–17.3%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Sancataldese
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Savoia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vigor Lamezia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ragusa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gelbison · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vibonese · 2-0 (W)
Enna
- 2026-10-25T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Igea Virtus · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vigor Lamezia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Calcio Avola · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Modica · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Licata · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sambiase | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Reggina | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 3 | Vibonese | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 4 | Licata | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 17 |
| 5 | Calcio Avola | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Milazzo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Digiesse PraiaTortora | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 8 | Igea Virtus | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 9 | AC Palermo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Gela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Nissa | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Siracusa | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 13 | Vigor Lamezia | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | CastrumFavara | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Modica | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Trapani 1905 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Ragusa | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Enna | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -20 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Enna win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.