Stadio Valentino Mazzola · Analysis updated 00:32 UTC
Sancataldese vs Nissa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Sancataldese and 1.38 for Nissa, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Nissa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nissa win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sancataldese home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nissa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nissa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 22% / 28% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Sancataldese and 1.38 for Nissa, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.6%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–011.4%
- 0–210.7%
- 1–09.1%
Recent form
Sancataldese
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Savoia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vigor Lamezia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ragusa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gelbison · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vibonese · 2-0 (W)
Nissa
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ragusa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Igea Virtus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vibonese · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Calcio Avola · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Trapani 1905 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sambiase | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Reggina | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 3 | Vibonese | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 4 | Licata | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 17 |
| 5 | Calcio Avola | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Milazzo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Digiesse PraiaTortora | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 8 | Igea Virtus | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 9 | AC Palermo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Gela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Nissa | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Siracusa | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 13 | Vigor Lamezia | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | CastrumFavara | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Modica | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Trapani 1905 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Ragusa | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Enna | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -20 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nissa win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.