Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Olimpia Grudziądz Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Sandecja Nowy Sącz and 0.98 for Olimpia Grudziądz, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Sandecja Nowy Sącz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Sandecja Nowy Sącz win

48.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sandecja Nowy Sącz home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Olimpia Grudziądz away threat
Scored in 8 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sandecja Nowy Sącz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Sandecja Nowy Sącz and 0.98 for Olimpia Grudziądz, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Sandecja Nowy Sącz win49%

Draw26%

Olimpia Grudziądz win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–012.7%
1–112.4%
2–09.4%
2–19.2%
0–08.6%

Recent form

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Środa · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Resovia Rzeszów · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Łęczna · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Świt Skolwin · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Avia Świdnik · 0-3 (L)

Olimpia Grudziądz

2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Chojniczanka Chojnice · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sokół Kleczew · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Śląsk Wrocław II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Zabrze II · 4-3 (W)
2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

II Liga - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	13	10	2	1	15	32
2	Tychy 71	12	7	5	0	12	26
3	Górnik Łęczna	13	7	2	4	13	23
4	Olimpia Grudziądz	13	6	4	3	-1	22
5	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	13	5	4	4	4	19
6	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	13	5	4	4	3	19
7	Podhale Nowy Targ	12	5	4	3	2	19
8	Stal Stalowa Wola	13	6	1	6	-2	19
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	13	5	3	5	3	18
10	Hutnik Kraków	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	13	5	3	5	0	18
12	Avia Świdnik	13	5	2	6	-4	17
13	Legia Warszawa II	13	5	1	7	3	16
14	Lechia Zielona Góra	13	4	4	5	-4	16
15	Sokół Kleczew	13	2	6	5	-11	12
16	Śląsk Wrocław II	13	3	1	9	-6	10
17	Świt Skolwin	13	2	3	8	-16	9
18	Resovia Rzeszów	13	0	6	7	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sandecja Nowy Sącz win, at 48.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.