· Analysis updated 18:12 UTC
Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Sandecja Nowy Sącz and 1.07 for Rekord Bielsko-Biała, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Sandecja Nowy Sącz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sandecja Nowy Sącz win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sandecja Nowy Sącz home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rekord Bielsko-Biała away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sandecja Nowy Sącz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 25% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Sandecja Nowy Sącz and 1.07 for Rekord Bielsko-Biała, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
- 2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Środa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Resovia Rzeszów · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Łęczna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Świt Skolwin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Avia Świdnik · 0-3 (L)
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
- 2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Świt Skolwin · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Avia Świdnik · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Legia Warszawa II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Grudziądz · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sandecja Nowy Sącz win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.