Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Znicz Pruszków Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Sandecja Nowy Sącz and 1.51 for Znicz Pruszków, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Znicz Pruszków the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.51

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sandecja Nowy Sącz home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Znicz Pruszków to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 31% / 25% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Sandecja Nowy Sącz and 1.51 for Znicz Pruszków, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Sandecja Nowy Sącz win31%

Draw25%

Znicz Pruszków win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.0%
0–19.6%
1–29.0%
1–07.9%
2–17.5%

Recent form

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Środa · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Resovia Rzeszów · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Łęczna · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Świt Skolwin · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Avia Świdnik · 0-3 (L)

Znicz Pruszków

2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Zielona Góra · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tychy 71 · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

II Liga - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	12	9	2	1	13	29
2	Tychy 71	12	7	5	0	12	26
3	Górnik Łęczna	13	7	2	4	13	23
4	Olimpia Grudziądz	13	6	4	3	-1	22
5	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	13	5	4	4	4	19
6	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	13	5	4	4	3	19
7	Podhale Nowy Targ	12	5	4	3	2	19
8	Stal Stalowa Wola	13	6	1	6	-2	19
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	13	5	3	5	3	18
10	Hutnik Kraków	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	13	5	3	5	0	18
12	Avia Świdnik	12	5	2	5	-2	17
13	Legia Warszawa II	13	5	1	7	3	16
14	Lechia Zielona Góra	13	4	4	5	-4	16
15	Sokół Kleczew	13	2	6	5	-11	12
16	Śląsk Wrocław II	13	3	1	9	-6	10
17	Świt Skolwin	13	2	3	8	-16	9
18	Resovia Rzeszów	13	0	6	7	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.