· Analysis updated 08:34 UTC
Sandefjord II vs Gjøvik-Lyn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Sandefjord II and 1.73 for Gjøvik-Lyn, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Gjøvik-Lyn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gjøvik-Lyn win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sandefjord II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gjøvik-Lyn away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gjøvik-Lyn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 30% / 24% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Sandefjord II and 1.73 for Gjøvik-Lyn, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–17.9%
- 2–17.3%
- 0–26.8%
Recent form
Sandefjord II
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lillehammer · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Råde · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fram · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Elverum · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Brumunddal · 2-1 (W)
Gjøvik-Lyn
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Oppsal · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bjørkelangen · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Raelingen · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarpsborg 08 II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Drøbak / Frogn · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lillehammer | 25 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 56 | 59 |
| 2 | Elverum | 25 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 53 |
| 3 | Råde | 25 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 45 | 46 |
| 4 | Gjøvik-Lyn | 25 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 44 |
| 5 | Drøbak / Frogn | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 41 |
| 6 | Ørn Horten | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 38 |
| 7 | Raelingen | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | -6 | 38 |
| 8 | Lyn II | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 34 |
| 9 | Oppsal | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 33 |
| 10 | Sandefjord II | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 33 |
| 11 | Sarpsborg 08 II | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 32 |
| 12 | Fram | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -9 | 29 |
| 13 | Brumunddal | 25 | 3 | 3 | 19 | -83 | 12 |
| 14 | Bjørkelangen | 25 | 1 | 0 | 24 | -89 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gjøvik-Lyn win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.