Sandefjord vs Lillestrom Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.03 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Sandefjord the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Sandefjord win

45.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sandefjord home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lillestrom away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sandefjord to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 27% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Sandefjord and 1.03 for Lillestrom, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Sandefjord win46%

Draw27%

Lillestrom win28%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–112.7%
1–012.4%
0–19.1%
2–18.9%
0–08.8%

Recent form

Sandefjord

2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Flint · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Start · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bodo/Glimt · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Viking · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Brann · 0-0 (D)

Lillestrom

2026-10-11T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Molde · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bærum · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Viking · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Valerenga · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Eliteserien table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Viking	22	17	2	3	36	53
2	Bodo/Glimt	21	16	2	3	34	50
3	Tromso	21	11	5	5	11	38
4	Molde	21	11	3	7	12	36
5	Rosenborg	21	10	3	8	9	33
6	Lillestrom	21	10	2	9	-1	32
7	Brann	22	9	2	11	5	29
8	Fredrikstad	21	8	4	9	-7	28
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	21	6	7	8	-5	25
10	KFUM Oslo	21	7	4	10	-10	25
11	Sandefjord	21	6	5	10	-6	23
12	Valerenga	21	6	5	10	-9	23
13	Ham-Kam	21	6	5	10	-15	23
14	Aalesund	21	4	9	8	-13	21
15	Kristiansund BK	21	5	4	12	-19	19
16	Start	21	4	4	13	-22	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sandefjord win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.