Jotun Arena · Referee Sigurd Smehus Kringstad, Norway · Analysis updated 20:45 UTC
Sandefjord vs Viking Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.38 for Viking, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Viking the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Viking win
51.8% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sandefjord home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Viking away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Viking to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 20% / 28% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Sandefjord and 1.38 for Viking, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.4%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–011.9%
- 0–211.3%
- 1–09.0%
Recent form
Sandefjord
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Flint · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Start · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bodo/Glimt · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Viking · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Brann · 0-0 (D)
Viking
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Madla · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lillestrom · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Kristiansund BK · 8-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandefjord · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 53 |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 50 |
| 3 | Tromso | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 38 |
| 4 | Molde | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 36 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | Lillestrom | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | -1 | 32 |
| 7 | Brann | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 29 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | -7 | 28 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -5 | 25 |
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | Sandefjord | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 12 | Valerenga | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -9 | 23 |
| 13 | Ham-Kam | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -15 | 23 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | -13 | 21 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -19 | 19 |
| 16 | Start | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -22 | 16 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Viking win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.