· Analysis updated 15:31 UTC
Sandnes ULF vs Lyn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Sandnes ULF and 1.47 for Lyn, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Sandnes ULF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sandnes ULF win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sandnes ULF home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lyn away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sandnes ULF to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 22% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Sandnes ULF and 1.47 for Lyn, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Sandnes ULF
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Strommen · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Moss · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Arendal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Stromsgodset · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranheim · 1-1 (D)
Lyn
- 2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Bryne · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranheim · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gamle Oslo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs hodd · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Egersund · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kongsvinger | 25 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 39 | 56 |
| 2 | Haugesund | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 56 |
| 3 | Stromsgodset | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 34 | 54 |
| 4 | Stabaek | 25 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | ODD Ballklubb | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 42 |
| 6 | Bryne | 25 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 38 |
| 7 | hodd | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | -10 | 34 |
| 8 | Egersund | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | -11 | 32 |
| 9 | Ranheim | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | -1 | 31 |
| 10 | Lyn | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | -14 | 28 |
| 11 | Moss | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | -15 | 28 |
| 12 | Strommen | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | -17 | 27 |
| 13 | Sandnes ULF | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -10 | 26 |
| 14 | Sogndal | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -16 | 23 |
| 15 | Asane | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | -18 | 23 |
| 16 | Raufoss | 24 | 6 | 1 | 17 | -36 | 19 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sandnes ULF win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.