· Analysis updated 10:52 UTC
Sandona vs Luparense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Sandona and 0.82 for Luparense, a combined total of 1.55. That distribution gives Luparense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.5% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Luparense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 30% / 36% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for Sandona and 0.82 for Luparense, a combined 1.55 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 20% and both teams to score at 29%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.3%
- 0–117.4%
- 1–015.5%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–27.1%
Recent form
Sandona
Luparense
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Altavilla · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandona · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Este · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brian Lignano · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Clodiense · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cjarlins Muzane | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Luparense | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 3 | Sandona | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | Clodiense | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Legnago Salus | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Campodarsego | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Mestre | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Este | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Conegliano | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | Bassano Virtus | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | LME | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Altavilla | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
| 13 | FC Obermais | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | Triestina | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Virtus Bolzano | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -16 | 9 |
| 16 | Calvi Noale | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 17 | Schio | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 18 | Brian Lignano | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.