· Analysis updated 01:17 UTC
Sándorfalva vs BKV Előre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Sándorfalva and 1.80 for BKV Előre, a combined total of 4.43. That distribution gives Sándorfalva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sándorfalva win
55.7% probability
Expected goals
2.63 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sándorfalva home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BKV Előre away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sándorfalva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 18% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Sándorfalva and 1.80 for BKV Előre, a combined 4.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.4%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.5%
- 3–25.8%
- 1–15.7%
Recent form
Sándorfalva
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Csepel · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ESMTK · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Szolnoki MAV FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs III. Kerületi TUE · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Újpest II · 1-0 (W)
BKV Előre
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dabas · 5-4 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Szeged-Csanád II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasas II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bekescsaba 1912 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sándorfalva · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
NB III - Southeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyulai Termál | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 39 |
| 2 | ESMTK | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 30 |
| 3 | III. Kerületi TUE | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 26 |
| 4 | Szeged-Csanád II | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Csepel | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | Vasas II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Újpest II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 8 | Monori Se | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 | Dabas | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 15 |
| 10 | Bekescsaba 1912 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Szolnoki MAV FC | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 12 | Honvéd II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Sándorfalva | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 11 |
| 14 | Hódmezővásárhely | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | -12 | 9 |
| 15 | Szegedi VSE | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -19 | 9 |
| 16 | BKV Előre | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -30 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sándorfalva win, at 55.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.