Campo Sportivo Comunale Zivido · Analysis updated 08:38 UTC
Sangiuliano City vs Pro Sesto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Sangiuliano City and 1.28 for Pro Sesto, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Sangiuliano City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.4% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sangiuliano City home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pro Sesto away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–010.0%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Sangiuliano City
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Desenzano Calvina · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rovato Vertovese · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cittadella Vis Modena · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Crema · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Coriano · 3-3 (D)
Pro Sesto
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Sant'Angelo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Varesina · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Solbiatese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Arconatese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Oltrepò · 6-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-22T13:30:00.000Z · Sangiuliano City 1-2 Pro Sesto (Serie D - Girone D)
- 2025-11-09T13:30:00.000Z · Sangiuliano City 0-0 Pro Sesto (Serie D - Girone D)
- 2025-02-09T13:30:00.000Z · Sangiuliano City 0-1 Pro Sesto (Serie D - Girone B)
- 2024-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · Sangiuliano City 1-1 Pro Sesto (Serie D - Girone B)
- 2024-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · Sangiuliano City 2-0 Pro Sesto (Coppa Italia Serie D)
- 2023-01-29T13:30:00.000Z · Sangiuliano City 0-1 Pro Sesto (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2022-09-24T12:30:00.000Z · Sangiuliano City 2-1 Pro Sesto (Serie C - Girone A)
Serie D - Girone D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 24 |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Castellanzese | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Lentigione | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Pro Sesto | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 6 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Sant'Angelo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Città di Varese | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 9 | USD Casatese | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Pavia | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Solbiatese | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Correggese | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 13 | Crema | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 9 |
| 14 | Varesina | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Arconatese | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 6 |
| 16 | Coriano | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Oltrepò | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.