· Analysis updated 09:01 UTC
Sankara Nationals vs Yapei Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Sankara Nationals and 0.98 for Yapei, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Sankara Nationals the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sankara Nationals win
48.7% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sankara Nationals home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yapei away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sankara Nationals to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Sankara Nationals and 0.98 for Yapei, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Sankara Nationals
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Wa Power · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Tamale · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs TF Exponential · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tamale City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Northern City · 2-3 (L)
Yapei
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mighty Royals · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs KAC Soccer · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolga AllStars · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs TF Exponential · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tamale City · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · Sankara Nationals 2-1 Yapei (Division One League)
- 2026-01-25T15:00:00.000Z · Sankara Nationals 0-1 Yapei (Division One League)
- 2025-12-13T15:00:00.000Z · Sankara Nationals 2-0 Yapei (Division One League)
- 2025-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · Sankara Nationals 1-0 Yapei (Division One League)
Division One League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ebusua Dwarfs | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 1 | Koforidua | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 13 |
| 1 | Sankara Nationals | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 1 | VC Warriors | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Nations | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 2 | Inter Allies | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 2 | Real Tamale | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Mighty Royals | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Pro-Sports Academy | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Hakla SC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Steadfast | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| 3 | Techiman Liberty | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Ebony FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Accra Lions | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Berekum City | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | Yapei | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 5 | Soccer Intellectuals | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Okwawu | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 5 | Wa Power | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | Bectero Sasana | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Nsuopun Fidelity | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | WAFA | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 8 |
| 6 | Kalibi SC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 5 |
| 6 | Dormaa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Elmina Sharks | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 7 | Golden Kicks | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Tamale City | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 7 | Eleven Wonders | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 8 | Fettehman United | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | 7th Wave | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Northern City | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 8 | KAC Soccer | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 9 | Skyy | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Nania | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | Ebiemo FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Home Stars | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | PAC Academy | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | True Democracy | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Rospak | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Attram de Visser | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | King Faisal | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Great Olympics | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Sefwi All Stars | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Nukunu | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Future Stars | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 15 | Kotoku Royals | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 2 |
| 16 | New Edubiase | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Golden Warriors | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sankara Nationals win, at 48.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.