Estadio El Palmar · Analysis updated 15:10 UTC
Sanluqueño vs Real Betis II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Sanluqueño and 1.50 for Real Betis II, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Real Betis II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Real Betis II win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sanluqueño home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Betis II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Betis II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 26% / 26% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Sanluqueño and 1.50 for Real Betis II, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.9%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–08.2%
Recent form
Sanluqueño
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla Atletico · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tamaraceite · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Marbella · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-23T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Teruel · 0-0 (D)
Real Betis II
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tamaraceite · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Xerez · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Marbella · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Linares Deportivo · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Badajoz · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis II | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | Recreativo Huelva | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Ciudad de Lucena | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Badajoz | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Don Benito | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Estepona | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Linares Deportivo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Puente Genil | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Tenerife II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Sevilla Atletico | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Sanluqueño | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Xerez | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Marbella | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Atlético Central | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Tamaraceite | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Las Palmas II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Antoniano | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Betis II win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.