· Analysis updated 16:43 UTC
Sânmartin vs Minaur Baia Mare Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Sânmartin and 1.43 for Minaur Baia Mare, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Sânmartin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sânmartin win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sânmartin home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Minaur Baia Mare away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sânmartin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 23% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Sânmartin and 1.43 for Minaur Baia Mare, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–27.3%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Sânmartin
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SCM Zalău · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bihorul Beiuş · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Minaur Baia Mare · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sănătatea Cluj · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crişul Sântandrei · 2-2 (D)
Minaur Baia Mare
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Viitorul Cluj · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sănătatea Cluj · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Dej · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crişul Sântandrei · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Academica Recea · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minaur Baia Mare | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 23 |
| 2 | Sănătatea Cluj | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Crişul Sântandrei | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Academica Recea | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Sighetu Marmaţiei | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 17 |
| 6 | SCM Zalău | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 7 | Sânmartin | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bihorul Beiuş | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Viitorul Cluj | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Unirea Tășnad | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 9 |
| 11 | Unirea Dej | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Transilvania Sport Academy | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sânmartin win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.