Nha Trang Stadium · Analysis updated 10:07 UTC
Sanna Khanh Hoa vs Bắc Ninh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Sanna Khanh Hoa and 1.20 for Bắc Ninh, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Bắc Ninh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bắc Ninh win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sanna Khanh Hoa home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bắc Ninh away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bắc Ninh to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 25% / 30% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Sanna Khanh Hoa and 1.20 for Bắc Ninh, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.2%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.0%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–29.7%
Recent form
Sanna Khanh Hoa
- 2026-10-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Than Quang Ninh · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Long An · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Pho Hien · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Văn Hiến · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Xuan Thien Phu Tho · 1-1 (D)
Bắc Ninh
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Long An · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ho Chi Minh · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Song Lam Nghe An · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hung Yen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Pho Hien · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T10:00:00.000Z · Sanna Khanh Hoa 2-2 Bắc Ninh (V.League 2)
- 2025-11-15T10:00:00.000Z · Sanna Khanh Hoa 0-0 Bắc Ninh (Cup)
- 2025-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · Sanna Khanh Hoa 0-1 Bắc Ninh (V.League 2)
V.League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thai Nguyen | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Hung Yen | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 10 |
| 3 | Sanna Khanh Hoa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 4 | Binh Duong | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Pho Hien | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Văn Hiến | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Dong Thap | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Than Quang Ninh | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Binh Dinh | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Ho Chi Minh | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Lam Dong | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Bóng đá Huế | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 13 | Long An | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | Xuan Thien Phu Tho | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bắc Ninh win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.