· Analysis updated 10:34 UTC
Sanremese vs Saluzzo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Sanremese and 0.99 for Saluzzo, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives Sanremese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sanremese win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sanremese home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Saluzzo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–09.1%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–08.7%
Recent form
Sanremese
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bra · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gozzano · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Saluzzo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chisola · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Celle Varazze · 1-0 (W)
Saluzzo
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ligorna · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Derthona · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanremese · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Celle Varazze · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Borgosesia · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-02T13:30:00.000Z · Sanremese 1-0 Saluzzo (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2025-11-23T14:00:00.000Z · Sanremese 1-1 Saluzzo (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2025-03-09T13:30:00.000Z · Sanremese 1-1 Saluzzo (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2024-11-03T14:00:00.000Z · Sanremese 1-1 Saluzzo (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2022-02-20T14:00:00.000Z · Sanremese 1-0 Saluzzo (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2021-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · Sanremese 2-0 Saluzzo (Serie D - Girone A)
Serie D - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandria | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Biellese | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Millesimo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Chisola | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Ligorna | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Sanremese | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Derthona | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Lascaris | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 9 | Asti | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Imperia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Saluzzo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Gozzano | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Bra | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Borgosesia | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Sestri Levante | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | Fezzanese | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Valenzana | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 18 | Celle Varazze | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sanremese win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.