· Analysis updated 15:57 UTC
Sant Andreu vs Manresa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.58 expected goals for Sant Andreu and 0.73 for Manresa, a combined total of 1.30. That distribution gives Manresa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 40%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 14% for over 2.5 goals and 23% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 27%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.3% probability
Expected goals
0.58 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sant Andreu home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Manresa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 25% / 40% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.58 goals for Sant Andreu and 0.73 for Manresa, a combined 1.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
60%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–027.3%
- 0–119.8%
- 1–015.7%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–27.2%
Recent form
Sant Andreu
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Antequera · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Gimnastic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ibiza · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Águilas · 2-0 (W)
Manresa
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tudelano · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Peña Sport · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arnedo · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlètic Lleida · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sant Andreu · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 23% and over 2.5 goals at 14%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.