Santa Amalia vs Villafranca Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Santa Amalia and 1.10 for Villafranca, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Santa Amalia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Santa Amalia win

48.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.56 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Santa Amalia home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Villafranca away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santa Amalia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.56 goals for Santa Amalia and 1.10 for Villafranca, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Santa Amalia win48%

Draw25%

Villafranca win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.0%
1–010.9%
2–19.4%
2–08.5%
0–17.7%

Recent form

Santa Amalia

2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Montijo · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Moralo · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Diocesano · 0-0 (D)
2026-04-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Villafranca · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Don Benito · 0-1 (L)

Villafranca

2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gévora · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Amalia · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Jaraíz · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Villanovense · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadiana · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Azuaga	6	5	0	1	10	15
2	Moralo	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Llerenense	5	4	1	0	4	13
4	Castuera	5	4	0	1	10	12
5	Villanovense	6	3	1	2	3	10
6	Puebla Calzada	6	2	2	2	2	8
7	CD Zafra	5	2	2	1	2	8
8	Gévora	6	2	2	2	-2	8
9	Jerez	5	2	1	2	1	7
10	Montijo	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Santa Amalia	5	1	3	1	1	6
12	Cabeza Buey	6	1	3	2	0	6
13	Villafranca	5	2	0	3	-1	6
14	Jaraíz	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Quintana	5	1	2	2	-3	5
16	Atlético Pueblonuevo	6	0	3	3	-10	3
17	Plasencia	5	0	2	3	-6	2
18	Guadiana	6	0	1	5	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Santa Amalia win, at 48.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.