Estadio de Piedades · Analysis updated 17:10 UTC
Santa Ana vs CS Uruguay Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Santa Ana and 1.00 for CS Uruguay, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Santa Ana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Santa Ana win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santa Ana home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
CS Uruguay away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santa Ana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 24% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Santa Ana and 1.00 for CS Uruguay, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.2%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.4%
Recent form
Santa Ana
- 2026-10-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Cariari Pococi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Cariari Pococi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T02:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Carmelita · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Aserri FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalupe FC · 2-1 (W)
CS Uruguay
- 2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Ana · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-29T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Cariari Pococi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Carmelita · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Aserri FC · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga de Ascenso table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aserri FC | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 33 |
| 2 | Santa Ana | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 27 |
| 3 | ADR Jicaral | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Quepos Cambute | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Cariari Pococi | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | Municipal Grecia | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | Guadalupe FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 9 | AD Sarchí | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | AD Carmelita | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
| 11 | Futbol Consultants Moravia | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 16 |
| 12 | CS Uruguay | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -17 | 9 |
| 13 | AD Cofutpa | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 14 | Santa Cruz FC | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Santa Ana win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.