Estadio Municipal Alfredo Joao Krieck · Analysis updated 20:59 UTC
Santa Catarina vs Marcílio Dias Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Santa Catarina and 2.75 for Marcílio Dias, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Marcílio Dias the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Marcílio Dias win
58.9% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 2.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santa Catarina home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marcílio Dias away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marcílio Dias to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 24% / 18% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Santa Catarina and 2.75 for Marcílio Dias, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.4%
- 1–36.7%
- 2–26.4%
- 2–35.9%
- 1–15.3%
Recent form
Santa Catarina
- 2026-10-23T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barra · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Metropolitano · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Joinville · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Figueirense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Marcílio Dias · 2-1 (W)
Marcílio Dias
- 2026-10-16T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Figueirense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nação · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Blumenau · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Hercílio Luz · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Catarina · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Santa Catarina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcílio Dias | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 2 | Figueirense | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Hercílio Luz | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Joinville | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Santa Catarina | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Barra | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 7 | Metropolitano | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 8 | Nação | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 9 | Blumenau | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Marcílio Dias win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.