· Analysis updated 16:27 UTC
Santa Clara B vs Lagoa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Santa Clara B and 1.04 for Lagoa, a combined total of 2.21. That distribution gives Santa Clara B the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.7% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lagoa away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santa Clara B to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 29% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Santa Clara B and 1.04 for Lagoa, a combined 2.21 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–111.4%
- 0–010.9%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Santa Clara B
- 2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Real · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sintrense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lagoa · 1-2 (L)
Lagoa
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético CP · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Serpa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara B · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Imortal Albufeira · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Aljustrelense · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imortal Albufeira | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Sintrense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | FC Serpa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Juventude Évora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Amora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Real | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Lagoa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Alcochetense | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Vitoria Setubal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | 1º Dezembro | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Lajense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Santa Clara B | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Portel | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Aljustrelense | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.