· Analysis updated 13:54 UTC
Santa Clara vs Felgueiras 1932 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.00 for Felgueiras 1932, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Santa Clara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Santa Clara win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santa Clara home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Felgueiras 1932 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santa Clara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Santa Clara and 1.00 for Felgueiras 1932, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–110.0%
- 3–06.6%
Recent form
Santa Clara
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Casa Pia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 1-1 (D)
Felgueiras 1932
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Naval 1893 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Penafiel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Vizela · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Chaves · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Farense · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Santa Clara win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.