· Analysis updated 10:07 UTC
Santa Cruz RJ vs Pérolas Negras Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Santa Cruz RJ and 3.20 for Pérolas Negras, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives Pérolas Negras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pérolas Negras win
80.1% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 3.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pérolas Negras away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pérolas Negras to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 8% / 12% / 80% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Santa Cruz RJ and 3.20 for Pérolas Negras, a combined 4.20 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 60%, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
20%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–38.3%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–46.6%
Recent form
Santa Cruz RJ
Pérolas Negras
- 2026-07-22T17:45:00.000Z · A vs CFRJ / Maricá · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-15T17:45:00.000Z · H vs CFRJ / Maricá · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-04T17:45:00.000Z · A vs CFRJ / Maricá · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-27T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Cabofriense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-23T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz RJ · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Rio table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boavista SC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | Sampaio Corrêa RJ | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Nova Iguaçu | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Olaria | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | São Gonçalo EC RJ | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Madureira | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 7 | Pérolas Negras | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | América RJ | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | CFRJ / Maricá | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Resende | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
| 11 | Bonsucesso | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 12 | Americano Campos | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Portuguesa RJ | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 14 | São Cristóvão RJ | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | CEAC / Araruama | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 16 | Serrano RJ | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 17 | Macaé | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Volta Redonda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 19 | Bangu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 20 | Cabofriense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 21 | Duque de Caxias | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 22 | Goytacaz | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 23 | SE Belford Roxo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
| 24 | Santa Cruz RJ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pérolas Negras win, at 80.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.