Santa Cruz vs Cotillas CD Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Santa Cruz and 1.19 for Cotillas CD, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Santa Cruz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Santa Cruz win

52.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 1.19

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Santa Cruz home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santa Cruz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 23% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Santa Cruz and 1.19 for Cotillas CD, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Santa Cruz win53%

Draw23%

Cotillas CD win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.5%
2–19.7%
1–08.8%
2–08.2%
1–26.2%

Recent form

Santa Cruz

2026-10-24T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Pulpileño · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Cotillas CD · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcantarilla · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Águilas II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Mazarrón FC · 2-2 (D)

Cotillas CD

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bala Azul · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Pulpileño · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcantarilla · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Águilas II · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Santomera	7	6	1	0	12	19
2	San Javier	7	4	2	1	2	14
3	Santa Cruz	7	3	3	1	2	12
4	UCAM Murcia II	7	3	2	2	7	11
5	Unión Molinense	6	3	2	1	5	11
6	Águilas II	7	2	5	0	3	11
7	Alcantarilla	7	2	3	2	-1	9
8	Atlético Pulpileño	7	2	2	3	0	8
9	Bala Azul	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Cartagena LU II	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Los Garres	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	2	2	2	-1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	2	0	4	-5	6
16	Algar	7	2	0	5	-9	6
17	Bullas Deportivo	6	1	2	3	-2	5
18	Mazarrón FC	7	0	1	6	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Santa Cruz win, at 52.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.