Santa Cruz vs Ituano Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Santa Cruz and 0.85 for Ituano, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Santa Cruz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

73.0% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Santa Cruz home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ituano away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santa Cruz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 30% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Santa Cruz and 0.85 for Ituano, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Santa Cruz win43%

Draw30%

Ituano win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals59%

Over 2.5 goals32%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–015.6%
0–013.5%
1–113.2%
0–111.5%
2–08.9%

Recent form

Santa Cruz

2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Floresta · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Floresta · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Maringá · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo PB · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Anápolis · 1-1 (D)

Ituano

2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Floresta · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-22T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Paysandu · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-15T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Volta Redonda · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-08T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Barra · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Brusque · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Botafogo PB	19	10	3	6	9	33
2	Brusque	19	9	5	5	6	32
3	Ferroviária	19	8	6	5	7	30
4	Maringá	19	8	6	5	2	30
5	Floresta	19	8	6	5	2	30
6	Inter De Limeira	19	8	6	5	2	30
7	Paysandu	19	9	2	8	-1	29
8	Santa Cruz	19	8	5	6	5	29
9	Ypiranga-RS	19	8	5	6	3	29
10	Guarani Campinas	19	7	7	5	10	28
11	Figueirense	19	7	7	5	-3	28
12	Maranhão	19	7	6	6	1	27
13	Amazonas	19	7	5	7	-2	26
14	Caxias	19	6	7	6	1	25
15	Ituano	19	6	4	9	-3	22
16	Volta Redonda	19	6	3	10	-12	21
17	Barra	19	5	6	8	0	21
18	Anápolis	19	5	4	10	-5	19
19	AO Itabaiana	19	4	5	10	-13	17
20	Confiança	19	3	4	12	-9	13
1	Ferroviária	6	3	2	1	3	11
2	Inter De Limeira	6	1	4	1	0	7
3	Brusque	6	1	4	1	0	7
4	Paysandu	6	1	2	3	-3	5
1	Maringá	6	3	2	1	4	11
2	Santa Cruz	6	3	2	1	2	11
3	Floresta	6	1	2	3	-3	5
4	Botafogo PB	6	1	2	3	-3	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.