Estadio Presidente Vargas · Analysis updated 02:53 UTC
Santa Maria U20 vs Sao Luiz U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Santa Maria U20 and 1.36 for Sao Luiz U20, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Sao Luiz U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.6% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santa Maria U20 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sao Luiz U20 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sao Luiz U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 32% / 27% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Santa Maria U20 and 1.36 for Sao Luiz U20, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Santa Maria U20
- 2026-08-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Brasiliense U20 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-02T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Brasiliense U20 · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-07-26T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Luziânia U20 · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ceilandense U20 · 3-1 (W)
Sao Luiz U20
- 2026-09-09T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Independente-AP U20 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Internacional U20 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Real SC U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ivoti U20 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Estadual Junior U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internacional U20 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 |
| 2 | Ypiranga Erechim U20 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Novo Hamburgo U20 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Caxias U20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Esportivo U20 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 5 |
| 6 | SC Gaucho RS U20 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 7 | Apafut U20 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 1 | Juventude U20 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Grêmio U20 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 15 |
| 3 | São José PA U20 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Sao Luiz U20 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 5 | Ivoti U20 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 6 | SERC Brasil U20 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | Real SC U20 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 8 | Santa Maria U20 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.