Estadio Municipal Gral. San Martin · Analysis updated 05:59 UTC
Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.55 expected goals for Santamarina and 0.78 for Circulo Deportivo, a combined total of 1.33. That distribution gives Circulo Deportivo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 39%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 15% for over 2.5 goals and 23% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 27%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.7% probability
Expected goals
0.55 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santamarina home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Circulo Deportivo away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 24% / 39% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.55 goals for Santamarina and 0.78 for Circulo Deportivo, a combined 1.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
61%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–026.6%
- 0–120.6%
- 1–014.6%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–28.0%
Recent form
Santamarina
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Rincon · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Costa Brava · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventud Unida Univ. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Circulo Deportivo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Guillermo Brown · 0-1 (L)
Circulo Deportivo
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de Mayo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Germinal de Rawson · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martín Mendoza · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de Mayo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Santamarina · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 23% and over 2.5 goals at 15%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.