Estadio Municipal Gral. San Martin · Analysis updated 20:45 UTC
Santamarina vs San Martín Mendoza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Santamarina and 0.85 for San Martín Mendoza, a combined total of 1.78. That distribution gives Santamarina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.6% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santamarina home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
San Martín Mendoza away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santamarina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 33% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Santamarina and 0.85 for San Martín Mendoza, a combined 1.78 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.9%
- 1–015.7%
- 0–114.4%
- 1–113.3%
- 2–07.3%
Recent form
Santamarina
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Rincon · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Costa Brava · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventud Unida Univ. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Circulo Deportivo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Guillermo Brown · 0-1 (L)
San Martín Mendoza
- 2026-10-10T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Argentino Monte Maíz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventud Unida Univ. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Circulo Deportivo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Guillermo Brown · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Fundacion Amigos · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.