· Analysis updated 14:31 UTC
Santanyí vs Binissalem Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Santanyí and 0.81 for Binissalem, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Santanyí the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Santanyí win
60.5% probability
Expected goals
1.79 – 0.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santanyí home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Binissalem away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santanyí to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 23% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.79 goals for Santanyí and 0.81 for Binissalem, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.3%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.4%
Recent form
Santanyí
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Llosetense · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Porreres · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Mercadal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcúdia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Constància · 1-1 (D)
Binissalem
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Andratx · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sineu · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Migjorn · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Platges Calvià · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Cardassar · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Manacor | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 3 | Cardassar | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Constància | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Platges Calvià | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Santanyí | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Formentera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | PE Sant Jordi | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Llosetense | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Alcúdia | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Porreres | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Binissalem | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Mercadal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Andratx | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Migjorn | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 16 | Arenal | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | Inter Ibiza | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | Sineu | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Santanyí win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.