· Analysis updated 23:47 UTC
Santanyí vs Mercadal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Santanyí and 0.67 for Mercadal, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives Santanyí the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Santanyí win
60.1% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 0.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santanyí home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Mercadal away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santanyí to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 25% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Santanyí and 0.67 for Mercadal, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.4%
- 2–013.2%
- 1–111.0%
- 0–010.1%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
Santanyí
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Llosetense · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Porreres · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Mercadal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcúdia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Constància · 1-1 (D)
Mercadal
- 2026-10-24T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Porreres · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardassar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcúdia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Constància · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Santanyí · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Platges Calvià | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Constància | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Manacor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Cardassar | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Santanyí | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Porreres | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | PE Sant Jordi | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Alcúdia | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Formentera | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Llosetense | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Binissalem | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Andratx | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Migjorn | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 16 | Arenal | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Sineu | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 2 |
| 18 | Inter Ibiza | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Santanyí win, at 60.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.