· Analysis updated 14:06 UTC
Santiago Wanderers vs Curico Unido Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Santiago Wanderers and 0.93 for Curico Unido, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Santiago Wanderers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Santiago Wanderers win
51.3% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santiago Wanderers home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Curico Unido away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Santiago Wanderers
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Recoleta · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cobreloa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Temuco · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Iquique · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Magallanes · 2-1 (W)
Curico Unido
- 2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Magallanes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Concepción · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Concepción · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos de Arica · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Espanola · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T21:30:00.000Z · Santiago Wanderers 3-0 Curico Unido (Primera B)
- 2025-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · Santiago Wanderers 0-1 Curico Unido (Primera B)
- 2025-07-05T22:00:00.000Z · Santiago Wanderers 2-1 Curico Unido (Primera B)
- 2024-10-07T23:00:00.000Z · Santiago Wanderers 2-2 Curico Unido (Primera B)
- 2024-05-19T19:00:00.000Z · Santiago Wanderers 2-2 Curico Unido (Primera B)
- 2022-06-26T19:00:00.000Z · Santiago Wanderers 1-1 Curico Unido (Copa Chile)
- 2022-06-17T23:00:00.000Z · Santiago Wanderers 1-1 Curico Unido (Copa Chile)
- 2021-11-09T22:00:00.000Z · Santiago Wanderers 0-3 Curico Unido (Primera División)
- 2021-08-03T00:30:00.000Z · Santiago Wanderers 1-2 Curico Unido (Primera División)
- 2021-02-06T00:30:00.000Z · Santiago Wanderers 3-1 Curico Unido (Primera División)
Primera B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Luis | 28 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 53 |
| 2 | Cobreloa | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 21 | 51 |
| 3 | Santiago Wanderers | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 47 |
| 4 | Magallanes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 46 |
| 5 | Antofagasta | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 45 |
| 6 | Recoleta | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 41 |
| 7 | San Marcos de Arica | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
| 8 | Deportes Copiapo | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 40 |
| 9 | Deportes Temuco | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 36 |
| 10 | Union Espanola | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | -3 | 36 |
| 11 | Deportes Iquique | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 35 |
| 12 | D. Puerto Montt | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | -9 | 35 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -16 | 31 |
| 14 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 28 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -14 | 23 |
| 15 | Union San Felipe | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -32 | 23 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | -18 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Santiago Wanderers win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.