Santo André vs Sertãozinho Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Santo André and 0.98 for Sertãozinho, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Santo André the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Santo André win

56.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Santo André home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santo André to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 23% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Santo André and 0.98 for Sertãozinho, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Match result (1X2)

Santo André win56%

Draw23%

Sertãozinho win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–011.3%
1–111.0%
2–010.1%
2–19.8%
0–06.4%

Recent form

Santo André

2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs EC São Bernardo · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs São Caetano · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T22:00:00.000Z · A vs São José EC · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs São José EC · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs São Caetano · 0-0 (D)

Sertãozinho

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Paulista - A2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Água Santa	15	10	1	4	10	31
2	Ferroviária	15	8	4	3	10	28
3	Ituano	15	8	4	3	8	28
4	São José EC	15	8	3	4	8	27
5	Sertãozinho	15	7	4	4	0	25
6	Votuporanguense	15	7	3	5	-1	24
7	Juventus	15	6	5	4	2	23
8	XV de Piracicaba	15	6	4	5	1	22
9	Oeste	15	5	7	3	4	22
10	Santo André	15	5	3	7	-6	18
11	Taubaté	15	3	8	4	-1	17
12	Inter De Limeira	15	4	4	7	-3	16
13	Linense	15	2	7	6	-6	13
14	Monte Azul	15	2	6	7	-5	12
15	Grêmio Prudente	15	1	9	5	-4	12
16	Sao Bento	15	1	2	12	-17	5
1	Ferroviária	6	4	0	2	4	12
2	Juventus	6	4	0	2	3	12
3	São José EC	6	3	0	3	2	9
4	Sertãozinho	6	1	0	5	-9	3
1	Votuporanguense	6	4	1	1	8	13
2	Ituano	6	3	1	2	-1	10
3	XV de Piracicaba	6	2	2	2	2	8
4	Água Santa	6	0	2	4	-9	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Santo André win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.