Santomera vs Mazarrón FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for Santomera and 0.78 for Mazarrón FC, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Santomera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Santomera win

78.6% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.75 – 0.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Santomera home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mazarrón FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santomera to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 14% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for Santomera and 0.78 for Mazarrón FC, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Santomera win79%

Draw14%

Mazarrón FC win8%

Double chance 1X

92%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

21%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

2–011.1%
3–010.2%
2–18.6%
1–08.1%
3–17.9%

Recent form

Santomera

2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Bullas Deportivo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Algar · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Garres · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs UCAM Murcia II · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Torrellano · 3-1 (W)

Mazarrón FC

2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Unión Molinense · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bala Azul · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cotillas CD · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-24T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Murcia II · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Santomera	7	6	1	0	12	19
2	San Javier	7	4	2	1	2	14
3	Santa Cruz	7	3	3	1	2	12
4	UCAM Murcia II	7	3	2	2	7	11
5	Unión Molinense	6	3	2	1	5	11
6	Águilas II	7	2	5	0	3	11
7	Alcantarilla	7	2	3	2	-1	9
8	Atlético Pulpileño	7	2	2	3	0	8
9	Bala Azul	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Cartagena LU II	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Los Garres	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	2	2	2	-1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	2	0	4	-5	6
16	Algar	7	2	0	5	-9	6
17	Bullas Deportivo	6	1	2	3	-2	5
18	Mazarrón FC	7	0	1	6	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Santomera win, at 78.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.