· Analysis updated 15:12 UTC
Santomera vs UCAM Murcia II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Santomera and 1.29 for UCAM Murcia II, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives Santomera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Santomera win
51.8% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santomera home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UCAM Murcia II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santomera to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Santomera and 1.29 for UCAM Murcia II, a combined 3.19 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
Santomera
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Bullas Deportivo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Algar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Garres · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs UCAM Murcia II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Torrellano · 3-1 (W)
UCAM Murcia II
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Balsicas Atlético · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Santomera · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Águilas II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Muleño · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mazarrón FC · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santomera | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | San Javier | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Alcantarilla | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Unión Molinense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Atlético Pulpileño | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Olímpico Totana | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | SFC Minerva | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Cotillas CD | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Santa Cruz | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | UCAM Murcia II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 11 | Bullas Deportivo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Águilas II | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Bala Azul | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Los Garres | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | Cartagena LU II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 16 | Balsicas Atlético | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 17 | Algar | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Mazarrón FC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Santomera win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.