Estadio TSM Corona · Referee Adonai Escobedo Gonzalez · Analysis updated 15:50 UTC
Santos Laguna vs CF Pachuca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Santos Laguna and 1.34 for CF Pachuca, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives CF Pachuca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.8% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santos Laguna home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
CF Pachuca away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–112.8%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–28.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.25 (model 53.1% vs market 40.8%, edge +12.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.25 | 40.8% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +12.3 |
| Match result | Away | 2.00 | 44.0% | 44.3% | 2.26 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 72.3% | 72.5% | 1.38 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 27.5% | 27.5% | 3.64 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.30 | 71.8% | 71.8% | 1.39 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 3.10 | 28.4% | 28.2% | 3.55 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.67 | 55.9% | 55.7% | 1.80 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 59.2% | 46.9% | 2.13 | -12.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Santos Laguna
- 2026-09-27T03:05:00.000Z · H vs CF Pachuca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Juarez · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL · 0-0 (D)
CF Pachuca
- 2026-09-27T03:05:00.000Z · A vs Santos Laguna · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlante FC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T03:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Juarez · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara Chivas · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-12T01:00:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 2-4 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
- 2025-11-09T23:00:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 1-0 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
- 2025-01-21T01:00:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 1-2 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
- 2024-10-23T01:00:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 1-1 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
- 2024-04-21T01:05:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 0-2 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
- 2023-09-19T03:00:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 2-3 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
- 2023-05-07T01:10:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 4-4 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
- 2023-04-10T00:05:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 1-4 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
- 2022-09-03T22:05:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 0-2 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
- 2022-04-04T00:00:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 3-1 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | CF Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.