Estadio TSM Corona · Referee Guillermo Pacheco Larios, Mexico · Analysis updated 16:39 UTC
Santos Laguna vs FC Juarez Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Santos Laguna and 0.94 for FC Juarez, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Santos Laguna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Santos Laguna win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santos Laguna home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Juarez away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.5%
- 0–19.9%
- 2–09.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 55.5% vs market 43.5%, edge +12.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 43.5% | 55.5% | 1.80 | +12.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.73 | 53.8% | 54.9% | 1.82 | +1.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.6% | 71.9% | 1.39 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 26.6% | 26.8% | 3.73 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 45.0% | 45.1% | 2.22 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 28.3% | 28.1% | 3.56 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.5% | 73.2% | 1.37 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 56.5% | 44.5% | 2.25 | -12.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Santos Laguna
- 2026-09-27T03:05:00.000Z · H vs CF Pachuca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Juarez · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL · 0-0 (D)
FC Juarez
- 2026-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Leon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Santos Laguna · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T03:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Pachuca · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 2-1 FC Juarez (Liga MX)
- 2026-01-18T23:00:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 2-2 FC Juarez (Liga MX)
- 2025-08-23T01:00:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 1-2 FC Juarez (Liga MX)
- 2025-01-30T03:00:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 0-1 FC Juarez (Liga MX)
- 2024-10-07T02:05:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 0-2 FC Juarez (Liga MX)
- 2024-04-01T01:36:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 1-2 FC Juarez (Liga MX)
- 2023-10-30T01:05:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 5-1 FC Juarez (Liga MX)
- 2023-02-12T01:05:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 1-3 FC Juarez (Liga MX)
- 2022-09-19T00:05:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 2-0 FC Juarez (Liga MX)
- 2022-02-19T03:00:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 0-0 FC Juarez (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | CF Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Santos Laguna win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.