Estadio Corona · Referee Vicente Jassiel Reynoso Arce, Mexico · Analysis updated 00:45 UTC
Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Santos Laguna and 1.25 for Guadalajara Chivas, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Guadalajara Chivas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guadalajara Chivas win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santos Laguna home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Guadalajara Chivas away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.3%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–29.6%
Recent form
Santos Laguna
- 2026-09-27T03:05:00.000Z · H vs CF Pachuca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Juarez · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL · 0-0 (D)
Guadalajara Chivas
- 2026-10-25T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T00:07:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T23:07:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T01:10:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-17T01:10:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2026-03-14T23:07:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 0-3 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2025-08-11T02:05:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 1-0 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2025-01-12T01:05:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2024-11-06T01:00:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 0-2 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2024-01-14T01:05:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2023-08-27T03:05:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 2-1 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2023-03-05T03:05:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 0-2 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2022-12-20T03:00:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 0-4 Guadalajara Chivas (Copa por México)
- 2022-07-17T00:05:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 21 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 19 |
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 14 |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -24 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guadalajara Chivas win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.