Santos Laguna vs Necaxa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Santos Laguna and 0.85 for Necaxa, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Santos Laguna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Santos Laguna win

53.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Santos Laguna home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Necaxa away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Santos Laguna win54%

Draw26%

Necaxa win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–014.1%
1–112.0%
2–010.9%
2–19.3%
0–09.1%

Recent form

Santos Laguna

2026-09-27T03:05:00.000Z · H vs CF Pachuca · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Juarez · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-30T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL · 0-0 (D)

Necaxa

2026-10-11T23:10:00.000Z · A vs CF Pachuca · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-28T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico San Luis · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Puebla · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-01-11T01:00:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 1-3 Necaxa (Liga MX)
2025-11-01T01:00:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 1-4 Necaxa (Liga MX)
2025-02-08T01:00:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 2-3 Necaxa (Liga MX)
2024-09-02T01:05:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 3-2 Necaxa (Liga MX)
2024-04-13T03:00:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 0-2 Necaxa (Liga MX)
2023-09-25T02:05:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 2-5 Necaxa (Liga MX)
2023-04-01T01:05:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 0-0 Necaxa (Liga MX)
2022-09-07T00:05:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 3-1 Necaxa (Liga MX)
2022-01-24T01:00:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 1-4 Necaxa (Liga MX)
2021-07-24T00:00:00.000Z · Santos Laguna 3-0 Necaxa (Liga MX)

Liga MX table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Club America	10	6	3	1	11	21
2	Toluca	11	6	2	3	10	20
3	Club Queretaro	10	6	2	2	7	20
4	Guadalajara Chivas	11	5	4	2	7	19
5	Leon	11	5	3	3	3	18
6	Atlas	11	5	3	3	-1	18
7	Cruz Azul	10	5	1	4	1	16
8	Club Tijuana	10	4	3	3	1	15
9	Puebla	11	4	3	4	-1	15
10	Monterrey	10	4	2	4	2	14
11	Tigres UANL	11	3	4	4	-2	13
12	CF Pachuca	10	3	3	4	4	12
13	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	10	3	3	4	-2	12
14	Atletico San Luis	10	3	3	4	-4	12
15	Atlante FC	11	2	5	4	-5	11
16	Santos Laguna	10	3	1	6	-5	10
17	Necaxa	10	2	2	6	-8	8
18	FC Juarez	11	1	1	9	-18	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Santos Laguna win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.