Estadio Corona · Referee Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle, Mexico · Analysis updated 15:42 UTC
Santos Laguna vs Tigres UANL Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Santos Laguna and 1.53 for Tigres UANL, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Santos Laguna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santos Laguna home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tigres UANL away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santos Laguna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 24% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Santos Laguna and 1.53 for Tigres UANL, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–07.1%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Santos Laguna
- 2026-09-27T03:05:00.000Z · H vs CF Pachuca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Juarez · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL · 0-0 (D)
Tigres UANL
- 2026-09-27T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Puebla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T03:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Juarez · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T01:10:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Santos Laguna · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | CF Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.