Santos U20 vs Botafogo U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Santos U20 and 1.29 for Botafogo U20, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives Botafogo U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.27 – 1.29

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Santos U20 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Botafogo U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 36% / 27% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Santos U20 and 1.29 for Botafogo U20, a combined 2.56 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Santos U20 win36%

Draw27%

Botafogo U20 win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.7%
0–110.0%
1–09.8%
1–28.2%
2–18.0%

Recent form

Santos U20

2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jabaquara U20 · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol U20 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cuiabá U20 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa Santista U20 · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs América-SP U20 · 7-0 (W)

Botafogo U20

2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo U20 · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense U20 · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estrela De Marco U20 · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampaio Correa FE U20 · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Volta Redonda U20 · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Brasileiro U20 A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras U20	19	13	5	1	31	44
2	Vasco da Gama U20	19	11	3	5	17	36
3	Botafogo U20	19	11	3	5	12	36
4	RB Bragantino U20	19	10	4	5	14	34
5	Athletico PR U20	19	9	5	5	14	32
6	Santos U20	19	9	4	6	5	31
7	Cruzeiro U20	19	8	5	6	8	29
8	Corinthians U20	19	8	5	6	6	29
9	Bahia U20	19	8	5	6	2	29
10	Flamengo U20	19	7	7	5	-1	28
11	São Paulo U20	19	6	7	6	1	25
12	América Mineiro U20	19	6	7	6	-12	25
13	Cuiabá U20	19	6	3	10	-8	21
14	Vitória U20	19	5	5	9	-11	20
15	Fluminense U20	19	5	4	10	-6	19
16	Grêmio U20	19	6	1	12	-11	19
17	Juventude U20	19	5	3	11	-19	18
18	Criciuma U20	19	5	2	12	-16	17
19	Avaí U20	19	3	7	9	-19	16
20	Fortaleza U20	19	2	9	8	-7	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.