· Analysis updated 07:21 UTC
Santos U20 vs Portuguesa U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Santos U20 and 0.99 for Portuguesa U20, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Santos U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Santos U20 win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santos U20 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Portuguesa U20 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santos U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 25% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Santos U20 and 0.99 for Portuguesa U20, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.1%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–09.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Santos U20
- 2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jabaquara U20 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cuiabá U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa Santista U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs América-SP U20 · 7-0 (W)
Portuguesa U20
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ponte Preta U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ponte Preta U20 · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sertãozinho U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs América-SP U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol U20 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Santos U20 win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.