Estadio Municipal de Nasca · Analysis updated 20:37 UTC
Santos vs Alianza Universidad Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Santos and 0.93 for Alianza Universidad, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Santos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.1% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santos home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alianza Universidad away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.7%
- 0–114.5%
- 1–014.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–26.7%
Recent form
Santos
- 2026-08-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Universidad · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Huancayo 2 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Comerciantes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayacucho FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-19T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Binacional · 3-1 (W)
Alianza Universidad
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bentín Tacna Heroica · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Binacional · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Minas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantil CNI · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-24T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bentín Tacna Heroica · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-17T20:00:00.000Z · Santos 3-3 Alianza Universidad (Segunda División)
- 2026-05-04T18:00:00.000Z · Santos 2-1 Alianza Universidad (Segunda División)
- 2024-10-13T17:45:00.000Z · Santos 0-3 Alianza Universidad (Segunda División)
- 2024-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · Santos 1-2 Alianza Universidad (Segunda División)
- 2024-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · Santos 3-2 Alianza Universidad (Segunda División)
- 2024-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · Santos 2-2 Alianza Universidad (Segunda División)
- 2023-08-08T20:15:00.000Z · Santos 0-3 Alianza Universidad (Segunda División)
- 2023-05-19T20:00:00.000Z · Santos 1-0 Alianza Universidad (Segunda División)
- 2022-07-31T20:00:00.000Z · Santos 2-2 Alianza Universidad (Segunda División)
- 2022-05-01T20:00:00.000Z · Santos 1-4 Alianza Universidad (Segunda División)
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Comercio | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Carlos A. Mannucci | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 30 |
| 3 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 28 |
| 4 | Molinos El Pirata | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 25 |
| 5 | U. San Martin | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 24 |
| 6 | Deportiva Agropecuaria | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Cesar Vallejo | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 8 | Academia Cantolao | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -11 | 14 |
| 9 | San Marcos | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 | -43 | 0 |
| 1 | Bentín Tacna Heroica | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 29 |
| 2 | Comerciantes | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Minas | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Sport Huancayo 2 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 25 |
| 5 | Alianza Universidad | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 21 |
| 6 | Santos | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 21 |
| 7 | Ayacucho FC | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -2 | 19 |
| 8 | Estudiantil CNI | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Deportivo Binacional | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -39 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.