Santos vs Comerciantes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Santos and 1.00 for Comerciantes, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Comerciantes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

71.7% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.80 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Santos home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Comerciantes away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Comerciantes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 28% / 33% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Santos and 1.00 for Comerciantes, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Santos win28%

Draw33%

Comerciantes win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

67%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals54%

Over 2.5 goals27%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score35%

Correct score

0–016.5%
0–116.5%
1–013.2%
1–113.2%
0–28.3%

Recent form

Santos

2026-08-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Universidad · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Huancayo 2 · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-01T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Comerciantes · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayacucho FC · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-19T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Binacional · 3-1 (W)

Comerciantes

2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Llacuabamba · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-25T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Sport Huancayo 2 · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-04T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Ayacucho FC · 5-1 (W)
2026-08-29T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Binacional · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-22T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Minas · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Union Comercio	16	9	5	2	14	32
2	Carlos A. Mannucci	16	9	3	4	10	30
3	Deportivo Llacuabamba	16	8	4	4	13	28
4	Molinos El Pirata	16	7	4	5	5	25
5	U. San Martin	16	7	3	6	9	24
6	Deportiva Agropecuaria	15	5	6	4	2	21
7	Cesar Vallejo	15	5	4	6	1	19
8	Academia Cantolao	16	3	5	8	-11	14
9	San Marcos	14	0	0	14	-43	0
1	Bentín Tacna Heroica	16	8	5	3	9	29
2	Comerciantes	16	6	8	2	9	26
3	Minas	16	6	7	3	13	25
4	Sport Huancayo 2	16	7	4	5	9	25
5	Alianza Universidad	16	5	6	5	0	21
6	Santos	16	6	3	7	-3	21
7	Ayacucho FC	16	5	4	7	-2	19
8	Estudiantil CNI	16	4	5	7	4	17
9	Deportivo Binacional	16	2	4	10	-39	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.